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AppLovin Performance: Key Insights from Northbeam Users
The Opportunity
With AppLovin creating buzz in the DTC advertising space, many are asking:
- Is AppLovin performance truly worth the social media hype?
- Is this channel a worthwhile test or a distraction for scaling brands?
Although AppLovin campaigns for eCommerce have been live for only 1–2 months for most Northbeam customers (and over the peak BFCM period), many marketers are eager to understand its performance through a larger, data-driven lens beyond anecdotal social media buzz. Based on early data, AppLovin shows promise in both activating and reactivating users to drive a high ROAS and new customer percentage:
- Activating New Users: AppLovin’s video ads—integrated into mobile games—capture the attention of users who may have seen your product elsewhere but remain unconvinced. These full-screen, partially unskippable ads (up to 60 seconds) are touted to effectively transition users from passive awareness to meaningful engagement.
- Reactivating Past Customers: AppLovin also performs well at re-engaging past customers. With Northbeam’s tracking, which allows an infinite lookback window, we’ve identified cases where users with 100+ touchpoints made purchases just minutes after viewing an AppLovin ad. This suggests a unique ability to reignite action among lapsed customers.
With Northbeam’s advanced tracking capabilities and deterministic data approach, we can provide an unbiased look at how AppLovin performs for real brands in real campaigns.
Adoption Stats
Early adoption rates suggest that AppLovin has gained rapid traction as a viable channel for DTC brands:
- 75% of Northbeam’s top 100 spending DTC brands are active on AppLovin.
- Over $10M in AppLovin spend has been tracked through Northbeam, with several brands exceeding $1M in spend over the past two months.
Performance Overview
The following data was sourced from Northbeam clients who spent advertising dollars on AppLovin between October 1st and November 30th. All figures are based on Northbeam’s clicks-only attribution model (Multi Touch Attribution), reflecting a clear and conservative view of performance.
Share of Wallet
- While Meta still leads with a 63% share of wallet across Northbeam's customer base, AppLovin accounts for 5.71% of total budgets among brands live on the platform—outpacing other channels like TikTok, Snap, YouTube, and Pinterest.
- In November, AppLovin captured 10%+ of ad spend for 31 brands, with one brand allocating as much as 34% of their budget to AppLovin.
- Brands spending on AppLovin grew their overall media budgets an average of 125% YoY, with AppLovin playing a key role in this expansion.
ROAS (Return on Ad Spend)
- AppLovin’s average ROAS is 45% higher than Meta and 74% higher than secondary platforms like TikTok, Snap, YouTube, and Pinterest. The platform’s click-driven nature contributes significantly to these strong performance metrics
- While 1-day efficiency is high on AppLovin, other channels tend to have a larger lift in ROAS when using longer attribution windows. This suggests that most of AppLovin’s impact is driven on the day of the conversion, while platforms like Snapchat, Youtube, and Tiktok can take 7-14 days to achieve comparable ROAS. Not necessarily a bad thing, but important to keep a close eye on as this can vary from brand to brand.
- With increased platform saturation, we expect efficiency to decrease over time. However, for now, AppLovin is performing well for Northbeam users testing this channel. It is important to note that there is still limited understanding of the long term impact of AppLovin due to the channel being so new. Brands leveraging Northbeam will be able to measure the channel holistically across historical benchmarks on other platforms to get a better understanding of long term value.
New Customer % and New Visit %
- AppLovin delivers 39% higher nROAS than Meta and 100%+ higher than secondary platforms.
- Strong ability to drive new customer acquisitions; with 85% of purchases coming from 1st time customers. This is key as click data is conservative, so this is especially validating that performance isn’t fluff and is actually driving acquisition.
- However, AppLovin’s New Visit Rate of 55% is lower than Meta (65%) and secondary platforms (~70%). This indicates the platform may currently target narrower, more familiar audiences. Despite this, it appears to convert first-time customers at a more efficient rate than other platforms.
- Customer acquisition is a key metric for most DTC brands, but it’s crucial to identify which channels are most efficient at converting first-time customers vs channels that are better at driving highly qualified new visits to your website.
- Understanding the complexities of your business is essential for gaining clarity on your customer journey and the time it takes for a customer to make a purchase after their first exposure to your brand. Brands with complex products or higher AOV, such as those in luxury, electronics, or furniture, typically experience longer consideration periods. This underscores the importance of balancing both short-term and long-term impacts in your decision-making process.
CPMs
- On average, AppLovin’s CPMs are 3.95% lower than Meta’s, but more than 20% higher than secondary platforms. Given AppLovin’s currently smaller share of wallet, it’s likely that as brands continue to scale CPMs are expected to be higher than Meta.
- While CPMs are a decent gauge for traffic efficiency, higher CPMs are commendable for higher quality audience and performance.
- As AppLovin spend and adoption increase in the DTC space in 2025, it will be interesting to observe how auction prices are impacted and if they can remain as competitive as Meta at scale
Why It’s Working
AppLovin’s new eCommerce offering shows promise as an alternative marketing channel for DTC brands seeking to diversify beyond Meta. Its ability to activate new users and reactivate past customers fills a crucial gap for brands aiming to scale.
AppLovin is currently highly competitive in terms of auction costs, with a large volume of clicks on the platform driving new customer conversions. This has contributed to strong overall performance to date and something to keep a close eye on with increased spend volume.
Northbeam users have quickly scaled on AppLovin by leveraging real-time performance insights powered by our first-party data and machine learning. With Northbeam’s accrual accounting methodology, brands can set 1-day profitability benchmarks aligned with their long-term objectives. This approach has allowed brands to assess the immediate impact of AppLovin in comparison to other channels, while continuing to get a deeper understanding of its full impact over time.
Customer Sentiment
Although AppLovin is seeing strong performance within Northbeam, our customers have had various opinions on the channel thus far:
- “AppLovin seems to be outperforming most channels, but will this last?”
- “We’re cautiously optimistic but impressed so far. The results are undeniable.”
- “AppLovin ROAS looks impressive, but I’m worried it’s just retargeting users.”
Concluding Thoughts from Northbeam
Northbeam’s Head of Media Strategy, Ryan Kovach, reflects on AppLovin’s role in reshaping channel diversification for DTC brands:
- Optimistic but Measured: Early results show AppLovin’s potential, with strong ROAS and nROAS positioning it as a channel worth considering for expanding media budgets.
- Demand Generation Excellence: AppLovin offers an intriguing combination of scale and performance, with early signs of capturing 10%+ of overall ad spend for several brands.
- Areas for Improvement: Metrics like New Visit Rate raise questions about audience diversity and potential future saturation, but its performance on ROAS and customer reactivation make these concerns secondary.
Guidance for Marketers
- Leverage Northbeam’s data quality for precise tracking:some text
- Use Northbeam to track both clicks and view-throughs on AppLovin, providing deterministic measurement of how the channel interacts with others, across devices, and throughout the customer journey.
- Monitor key performance metrics like CPMs, CAC, ROAS, and nROAS to assess scalability.
- Consider AppLovin for both demand acquisition and customer re-engagement campaigns.
- Set profitability benchmarks tailored to AppLovin with Northbeam:some text
- Establish CAC payback period targets to align with your brand’s goals and optimize campaigns down to the creative level.
- Use New Visit % and New Customer % to validate audience quality.
The Road Ahead
AppLovin’s managed-service model is currently limited to brands spending $20K+/day on Meta, but its self-serve platform launch in 2025 promises broader accessibility. Stay tuned for more analysis- Northbeam will continue refining insights with additional data pulls and case studies in early 2025, including:
- Channel Overlap (Touchpoint Data)
- First-Touch Attribution Comparisons
- Analysis of Brands Allocating Higher Spend Shares
- View-Through Measurement with Enhanced Clicks + Views
As DTC brands increasingly adopt AppLovin, its focus on activating and reactivating users positions it as a promising channel for 2025 and beyond.
BFCM 2024 Predictions: How Did We Do?
As the dust settles and the credit cards cool from this year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend, it's time to reflect on how our early 2024 bets stacked up against the actual trends shaping the season.
Earlier this year, Bryan Bumgardner, Northbeam’s Director of Growth Marketing, and Brayden Cruz, Senior Media Strategist, shared their 2024 BFCM predictions. In this blog post, we’ll break down what we got right, what we got wrong, and what we’re looking forward to next year.
Our 2024 BFCM predictions
Sky-high online sales
With ecommerce growing exponentially, 2024 was poised to outpace the $38 billion spent during Cyber Week in 2023. A greater focus on mobile optimization and seamless online experiences was expected to drive this growth, particularly with more consumers avoiding in-store crowds.
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) gains momentum
Following a 17% year-over-year increase in BNPL adoption in 2023, we anticipated even higher reliance on installment payments in 2024. Younger demographics, especially Gen Z, have embraced BNPL as a way to manage holiday spending without straining budgets.
Personalization is the name of the game
This year, we predicted that brands would increasingly rely on AI-driven tools to deliver customized recommendations and targeted campaigns. This trend was predicted to be pivotal for converting the growing number of online browsers into buyers.
Supply chain stabilization
Unlike prior years marked by global disruptions set off by the political landscape, COVID-19, and wars, 2024 predicted a smoother supply chain, allowing retailers to manage inventory and deliver products more efficiently.
How the predictions played out
Sky-high online sales
This year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday online spending confirmed our prediction of robust growth. On Black Friday, shoppers spent a record-breaking $10.8 billion online. This record was broken only a few days later on Cyber Monday with a whopping $13.3 billion in sales, making it the biggest online shopping day of all time.
Shoppers worldwide will spend an estimated $240 billion online during the holiday season, marking an 8.4% increase from 2023. In addition to Friday and Monday, Cyber Week as a whole accounts for over 25% of global holiday spending, emphasizing its position as the most significant contributor to annual retail performance.
About 75% of shoppers planned to shop online on BFCM, up 7% from last year. Notably, mobile shopping continued its dominance. Over 75% of shoppers have between 1-5 shopping apps on their mobile phones, and 50% of Gen Z and Millennials shop exclusively on their phones.
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) gains momentum
BNPL adoption surged as anticipated, particularly among Gen Z and Millennial shoppers: 39% of Millennials planned to use BNPL during BFCM, followed by 38% of Gen Z shoppers.
By offering flexible installment options, retailers captured budget-conscious consumers navigating high inflation and financial pressures. This year, BNPL drove $18.5 billion in online spend during BFCM alone, an 11% increase from last year.
Personalization is the name of the game
Personalization proved to be a major differentiator during this year’s BFCM, particularly with the growing role of AI.
Generative AI tools were employed by 40% of shoppers to discover deals, specific items, or personalized recommendations, demonstrating how advanced technology is reshaping the shopping landscape.
Last year, AI influenced over 17% of all holiday orders in November and December — and there’s no reason to believe this trend hasn’t increased in 2024. Today, 70% of consumers use generative AI tools like ChatGPT to enhance their shopping experience. This includes finding the best deals, finding specific items online quickly, and getting brand recommendations.
Supply chain stabilization
Unlike previous years marred by supply chain disruptions, 2024 benefited from relative stability. Inventory shortages were minimal thanks to better forecasting, technologies like RFID, and smoother logistics, and retailers leveraged this stability to provide a more seamless shopping experience, ensuring consumers had access to popular products without significant delays.
But while political instability and an international pandemic can impact supply chains, there are other issues to consider, such as logistic worker strikes — like the U.S. port strike in September — or cyber attacks. Nearly 200,000 customers were affected by supply chain cyber attacks worldwide in 2024. As technologies improve on all sides, retailers and companies need to bring intense focus to cyber security to maintain supply chain stability over time.
Overperform with Northbeam
Our team took a look at the year-over-year data for brands that have been with us for multiple BFCM periods, and the results speak for themselves: Northbeam usage is correlated with significant performance growth over BFCM and the holiday period over time.
With Northbeam at their disposal, our clients know the impact of every dollar, and they’re more empowered to put money where it counts with full confidence.
Client A: Supplement company sees explosive ROAS
As an example, let’s look at “Client A,” a supplement company (anonymized to protect their strategy). In 2023, they spent $2.2 million on ads across the November shopping period, and brought in $5.1 million in revenue. That’s a 2.3x ROAS — not bad, but not stellar.
In 2024, they only spent $260,000 on ads — a 90% decrease — and made $8.2 million in revenue. That’s a 31.5x ROAS. How did they do it?
In 2023, Client A spent significant dollars across a wide portfolio of Facebook, Google, Snapchat, and Amazon ads. With Northbeam data in hand, they were able to hone in on the channels and campaigns that made the biggest impact and delivered the most bang for their buck. The result? Based on ad efficiency calculated by Northbeam data, Client A decided to shift a significant amount of advertising dollars into Amazon ads in 2024.
In 2023, Client A spent $38,000 on Amazon ads. In 2024, they upped that spend to $143,500 — nearly a 4x difference — and reduced spend across other platforms accordingly.
The result? Their Amazon ads had an outsized impact on revenue. Northbeam gave Client A the intelligence to approach the BFCM period with a data-backed strategy — and it paid off by the millions.
Client B: Beauty company sees big growth led by new channels
Let’s look at another example in the form of “Client B,” a beauty company. In 2023, they spent $213,000 across channels for the holiday shopping period and brought in $340,000 in revenue. In 2024, they spent $346,000 and made $1.15 million in revenue.
A spend increase of 60% resulted in nearly 4x the revenue!
How did they do it? With Northbeam’s data to enable their decision-making, Client B had the confidence to explore new channels and expand spend in strategic ways. While they maintained even spending on Meta and Google, they added in TikTok and boosted their Amazon spend, knowing that they’d be able to track the impact of each dollar.
Client B’s informed experimentation paid off with a record-breaking BFCM period!
What to watch for in 2025
As we look ahead, several strategies can help retailers succeed next year:
- Early campaigns remain a cornerstone of success. Retailers should aim to launch their outreach at least three weeks before BFCM to capture attention before competitors flood the market.
- With mobile devices accounting for most e-commerce traffic, retailers must invest in mobile-first designs, faster load times, and user-friendly checkout experiences.
- Rising consumer skepticism about Black Friday deals underscores the need for transparency in promotions: over 57% of shoppers questioned the legitimacy of sales and deals.
- Offering flexible payment methods, including BNPL, is not just a value-add but a necessity for capturing budget-conscious shoppers.
The 2024 BFCM season highlighted how innovation and preparation are key to thriving during the busiest shopping period of the year. While early predictions largely held true, the evolving consumer landscape emphasizes the need for agility, transparency, and strategic investments in personalization and technology.
Will these same predictions and outcomes hold true for the rest of the 2024 holiday shopping period? Let’s see what the end of 2024 has in store.
Northbeam: the premiere growth tool
Looking at the nearly $1 billion in revenue and $200 million in ad spend across Northbeam clients this year, here is how performance stacked up against data from last year’s BFCM:
The data above was derived from performance tracked across all Northbeam customers, across all industries, who had data inclusive of both 2023 and 2024 time ranges. Data represents the total across the five days of BFCM, comparing 2023 and 2024 year-over-year. All data is cash, on a 1-day click attribution window.
As we reflect on the 2024 BFCM season, it’s clear that data-backed decision-making is a cornerstone of success for retailers.
Northbeam’s MMM+ delivers unparalleled insights into how various marketing channels drive growth and impact revenue. Unlike traditional MMM, which often feels like a black box, Northbeam’s approach combines granular attribution data with intuitive, actionable reporting. This ensures that even complex multi-channel strategies can be demystified and fine-tuned with confidence.
The result? Brands can better allocate resources, maximize ROI, and make informed decisions across their entire marketing mix — even in the most competitive periods like BFCM.
Probabilistic vs. Deterministic Approaches in a Cookieless Future
The potential deprecation of third-party cookies has sent shockwaves across the industry. Marketers are hustling to adapt as the tools and methodologies they’ve relied on for years are at risk of losing their potency. Whether that cookieless future is a year away or five years away, the best marketers are taking steps today to set themselves up for success in the long run.
This upcoming adaptation has also fed an ongoing debate about probabilistic vs. deterministic approaches in marketing strategy. In this guide, we’ll talk about both approaches, discuss why they matter, and cover how a probabilistic approach can help marketers prepare for a cookieless future.
The cookie crisis
Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let’s take a step back to discuss the potential deprecation of third party cookies. While Google Chrome won’t be deprecating cookies just yet, there are indications that we’re moving in that direction sooner rather than later. User preferences and governmental regulations are indicating that privacy is and will remain top-of-mind in the coming years.
This shift poses a threat to how digital advertising has traditionally been measured and managed. Deterministic measurement, which relies heavily on cookie data, is particularly vulnerable to this change.
According to eMarketer, almost 90% of browsers could become cookieless long term. In this potential future, fewer than 20% of users will opt in to sharing cookies when browsing online. This drastic reduction in available data may lead to diminished performance for campaigns that rely solely on deterministic models.
For marketers, this could be the difference between thriving in a competitive environment and seeing their performance decline.
Probabilistic vs. deterministic measurement
Let’s dive into definitions.
Deterministic measurement relies on direct user actions and data points to track and measure behavior. It bases outputs on actual user behavior and builds its measurements off of cookie data, login information, and device IDs. While this method is highly accurate, it is also highly dependent on the availability of direct data, which will become increasingly scarce as security measures proliferate.
Probabilistic measurement, on the other hand, uses algorithms and statistical models to infer user behavior based on aggregated data points. Instead of relying on exact matches, it identifies patterns and correlations to estimate outcomes. While it might not offer the same level of precision as deterministic measurement, it is far more resilient in a world where direct data points are dwindling.
The growth of probabilistic measurement
As cookies disappear, so too does the feasibility of relying solely on deterministic measurement. Marketing intelligence platforms like Northbeam have taken this inevitable shift to heart and built their analytics platforms off of probabilistic models.
By leveraging advanced machine learning models, probabilistic measurement can continue to provide valuable insights even when direct data is limited. It’s adaptable, scalable, and, most importantly, future-proof.
The best thing about machine learning-based modeling is that it gets more accurate over time as it trains on massive amounts of available marketing touchpoints — we’re talking billions of data points a day about how users engage with your product and behave online. With a longer view, we can expect probabilistic measurement to grow in accuracy and gain even more value as a go-to tool.
The digital vs. traditional divide
Compounding the challenge of accurate measurement is the growing divide between digital and traditional media spending. According to recent projections by eMarketer, U.S. total media spending in 2024 is expected to reach $389.49 billion, with digital accounting for a staggering $302.77 billion of that total. In contrast, traditional media is expected to bring in $86.72 billion.
This shift from traditional to digital media underscores the importance of effective digital measurement. As more dollars flow into digital channels, the stakes for getting measurement right are higher than ever. Marketers can’t afford to rely solely on deterministic models as digital spend continues to rise — a marketing strategy built on unreliable or diminishing data is not scalable in the long- or even medium-term.
It’s time to adapt
What does all of this mean for you as a marketer? Now more than ever, you need tools and platforms that are built to not just survive but thrive in a cookieless world. Unlike traditional MTA solutions that rely heavily on deterministic data, Northbeam’s approach is and has always been rooted in probabilistic measurement. This ensures that your campaigns remain effective, even as the data landscape shifts beneath your feet.
By educating yourself on probabilistic measurement and anticipating the deprecation of cookies, you can stay ahead of the curve and remain competitive in tomorrow’s marketing ecosystem. This isn’t just about improving performance today, it's about setting yourself and your organization up for success in the long term. A future-proof strategy is the best strategy.
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