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Probabilistic vs. Deterministic Approaches in a Cookieless Future
The potential deprecation of third-party cookies has sent shockwaves across the industry. Marketers are hustling to adapt as the tools and methodologies they’ve relied on for years are at risk of losing their potency. Whether that cookieless future is a year away or five years away, the best marketers are taking steps today to set themselves up for success in the long run.
This upcoming adaptation has also fed an ongoing debate about probabilistic vs. deterministic approaches in marketing strategy. In this guide, we’ll talk about both approaches, discuss why they matter, and cover how a probabilistic approach can help marketers prepare for a cookieless future.
The cookie crisis
Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let’s take a step back to discuss the potential deprecation of third party cookies. While Google Chrome won’t be deprecating cookies just yet, there are indications that we’re moving in that direction sooner rather than later. User preferences and governmental regulations are indicating that privacy is and will remain top-of-mind in the coming years.
This shift poses a threat to how digital advertising has traditionally been measured and managed. Deterministic measurement, which relies heavily on cookie data, is particularly vulnerable to this change.
According to eMarketer, almost 90% of browsers could become cookieless long term. In this potential future, fewer than 20% of users will opt in to sharing cookies when browsing online. This drastic reduction in available data may lead to diminished performance for campaigns that rely solely on deterministic models.
For marketers, this could be the difference between thriving in a competitive environment and seeing their performance decline.
Probabilistic vs. deterministic measurement
Let’s dive into definitions.
Deterministic measurement relies on direct user actions and data points to track and measure behavior. It bases outputs on actual user behavior and builds its measurements off of cookie data, login information, and device IDs. While this method is highly accurate, it is also highly dependent on the availability of direct data, which will become increasingly scarce as security measures proliferate.
Probabilistic measurement, on the other hand, uses algorithms and statistical models to infer user behavior based on aggregated data points. Instead of relying on exact matches, it identifies patterns and correlations to estimate outcomes. While it might not offer the same level of precision as deterministic measurement, it is far more resilient in a world where direct data points are dwindling.
The growth of probabilistic measurement
As cookies disappear, so too does the feasibility of relying solely on deterministic measurement. Marketing intelligence platforms like Northbeam have taken this inevitable shift to heart and built their analytics platforms off of probabilistic models.
By leveraging advanced machine learning models, probabilistic measurement can continue to provide valuable insights even when direct data is limited. It’s adaptable, scalable, and, most importantly, future-proof.
The best thing about machine learning-based modeling is that it gets more accurate over time as it trains on massive amounts of available marketing touchpoints — we’re talking billions of data points a day about how users engage with your product and behave online. With a longer view, we can expect probabilistic measurement to grow in accuracy and gain even more value as a go-to tool.
The digital vs. traditional divide
Compounding the challenge of accurate measurement is the growing divide between digital and traditional media spending. According to recent projections by eMarketer, U.S. total media spending in 2024 is expected to reach $389.49 billion, with digital accounting for a staggering $302.77 billion of that total. In contrast, traditional media is expected to bring in $86.72 billion.
This shift from traditional to digital media underscores the importance of effective digital measurement. As more dollars flow into digital channels, the stakes for getting measurement right are higher than ever. Marketers can’t afford to rely solely on deterministic models as digital spend continues to rise — a marketing strategy built on unreliable or diminishing data is not scalable in the long- or even medium-term.
It’s time to adapt
What does all of this mean for you as a marketer? Now more than ever, you need tools and platforms that are built to not just survive but thrive in a cookieless world. Unlike traditional MTA solutions that rely heavily on deterministic data, Northbeam’s approach is and has always been rooted in probabilistic measurement. This ensures that your campaigns remain effective, even as the data landscape shifts beneath your feet.
By educating yourself on probabilistic measurement and anticipating the deprecation of cookies, you can stay ahead of the curve and remain competitive in tomorrow’s marketing ecosystem. This isn’t just about improving performance today, it's about setting yourself and your organization up for success in the long term. A future-proof strategy is the best strategy.
What is Pixel Tracking?
In the dynamic world of digital marketing, understanding customer behavior online is paramount. Pixel tracking is a crucial technology for sophisticated marketers that enables them to unlock detailed insights about users and measure their campaign performance with ease.
How do pixels work?
Pixels, or “tracking pixels,” are tiny, often-invisible images or pieces of code embedded on a webpage or email. When a user visits a website or opens an email, the pixel sends a signal back to the server. This signal, or “ping,” carries data about the user’s interaction, such as the time of their visit, the pages they viewed, and any specific actions they took.
How are pixels different from cookies?
There are a lot of ways to glean user information. While tracking pixels, first party cookies, and third party cookies all serve similar purposes, they do so in different ways. Understanding these differences is crucial for marketers who want to leverage the right tools in the right way to maintain compliance and gather the data they need.
Use this table below to differentiate between tracking pixels, first party cookies, and third party cookies.
Why use tracking pixels?
Pixel tracking offers several vital benefits to marketers, including but not limited to:
- Performance measurement - by tracking user actions, like email opens, clicks, and time-on-page, marketers can measure the effectiveness of their campaigns with high precision.
- Audience segmentation - data from tracking pixels can help create detailed user profiles and segment a given audience based on behavior. This enables more personalized and targeted marketing efforts
Pixels also have various use cases when it comes to digital marketing. Some of the big ones are:
- Website analytics - use pixels to understand how users navigate a website, which pages they visit, and how much time they spend on each page
- Ad campaigns - use pixels to measure the performance of display ads, social media ads, and other paid campaigns to optimize spend and improve ROI
- Email marketing - use pixels to track open rates, click-through rates, and user engagement with your email content
- E-commerce - user pixels to monitor how users interact with your products and website to refine your sales strategies. Pixels can surface browsing patterns, add-to-cart actions, and other significant clicks
What is the Northbeam Pixel?
Northbeam takes advantage of pixels and pixel tracking to generate actionable insights and near-real-time information about user behavior.
Like pixels in general, the Northbeam Pixel is a snippet of code that allows Northbeam to collect important behavioral information about your website visitors. This information then feeds into Northbeam’s backend device graphic, allowing us to track customer journeys from site visit to purchase, along with all the other marketing touchpoints in between.
Read more in our Knowledge Base.
What’s the future of pixel tracking?
As digital marketing technologies continue to evolve, pixel tracking is expected to become even more sophisticated. Technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning will enhance our ability to predict user behavior and personalize marketing efforts in unprecedented ways. It’s key to stay ahead of privacy concerns and regulations to understand how they will affect pixel data.
With its advanced features and ease-of-use, the Northbeam Pixel represents the next generation of tracking technologies, offering enhanced accuracy, comprehensive data collection, and near-real-time reporting so marketers can optimize their strategies and drive better results.
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